Wednesday, March 05, 2014

Another Quebec Referendum in the Works?

In the distant recesses of my memory, there is a vague recollection of 100,000 Anglophones traveling to Montreal to tell Francophones that a united Canada needed the province of Québec in order to be whole.

The large-hearted gesture seems to have had the desired effect. The referendum on Québec sovereignty in 1995 was settled with a decisive 51% voting against leaving the federal union of Canada. I remember commenting to one of my high school friends that a second defeat meant the sovereignty movement was now likely to disappear entirely from the Canadian political landscape.

At the time, I had no notion that I would ever make a home in Québec. The province, for all intents and purposes, was a foreign country. But it was something I was taught about in Canadian history class or learned about reading Canadian history books. In my mind, as a Canadian--which, as an Ontarian, is how I thought myself--I identified with Quebecers because they too were Canadian.

It did not matter that I had never (at least to my knowledge) met a Quebecers. The stories were enough to sustain the mental connection. On the Plains of Abraham, my heart was with the valiant Montcalm, not perfidious Wolfe; just as it was with stalwart Brock on Queenstown Heights, not the American invader. That Canada was an anachronism in both these instances mattered not one bit. Montcalm the Frenchmen and Brock the Englishmen stood for what would become Canada. So also with the French habitants and the Loyalist settlers in the Maritimes and Ontario. They stood for the Canada I inherited, and so they were both my figurative ancestors. (I cannot be the only person who grew up thinking this way.)

My Canada is bilingual and multicultural. My Canada embraced more than my lingually-challenged and culturally flat-footed self ever could be. At the same time, living in Montreal the past 4.5 years has allowed idea of Canada to mature. I now recognize my Romantic idea of Quebeckers was the idea of an Ontarians--an Anglophone's vision of what Francophones should be.

Yesterday Premier Pauline Marois has called a provincial election on what nearly every observer and political commentator agrees are identity issues. The PLQ staked their political fortunes on the so-called Charter of Québec Values. The reasons appear entirely cynical. After the PLQ won its minority government, its movement in the polls was flat. And then, for causes that appear inexplicable to an Anglophone, the party's prospects immediately improved after they found their wedge issue.

Whether Marois' thought processes were essentially cynical is a chicken and egg question. Which came first? The PLQ's Charter of Québec Values, or the voter's desire for something like it? By fixating our attention on the actions of a few individuals on top, we risk misunderstanding the dynamics on the ground.

For the moment, the Charter seems to have done its work. The time has been judge right for the PLQ to seek its majority in the provincial legislature. That, by calling an early election, Marois is backtracked on a resolution from last year to fix the date of the next election is immaterial at this point. Whether she is perceived to have used the election to avoid testifying before a legislature committee to her involvement in her husband's alleged misuse of government funds may not be. The Liberals and there CAQ are both likely to use these barbs to great effect.

But, as strange as it sounds, Québec is the one place in North American where it's not the economy: it's identity, stupid! Campaigning on the virtues of the Charter seems also the perfect way to test the waters for a future referendum. It is a way to change the political conversation, and even to generate future support. The PLQ can also count on the fact that the rest of Canada's attitude towards Québec has changed significantly in the last two decades. One hundred thousand Anglophone's are not making the trip to Montreal this time around.

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